Get ready for a potentially wild winter ride! NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) just dropped its winter forecast for 2025-2026, and it paints a picture of significant regional differences across the United States. Buckle up, because your winter weather could depend heavily on where you live.
This forecast, released on Thursday, October 16, 2025, by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, focuses on the months of December, January, and February. It doesn't give specific day-to-day predictions, but rather outlines the likely overall trends for temperature and precipitation. So, what does it say?
For a large portion of the contiguous United States, the forecast anticipates warmer-than-average temperatures. But here's where it gets interesting: the southern states are specifically predicted to experience a drier and warmer winter than they usually do. Think less rain and milder temperatures down south. The northern states, on the other hand, are expected to be cooler and wetter. Prepare for potentially more snow and colder conditions up north!
What's driving these differing patterns? The culprit is La Niña. If you're not familiar, La Niña is the cooler phase of something called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. ENSO is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by fluctuating sea surface temperatures and rainfall in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Imagine a giant seesaw of ocean temperatures that affects weather patterns worldwide.
Earlier this month, NOAA officially announced that the U.S. had shifted from a "neutral" phase to La Niña, as the sea surface temperatures in that critical Pacific region dipped below average. Think of it like this: the ocean's thermostat has been turned down a notch, and that's sending ripples through our weather systems.
Both La Niña and its counterpart, El Niño (the warm phase of ENSO), have a powerful influence on North American weather. La Niña typically brings drought to the southern U.S. and heavy rains to the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During the winter, this often translates to warmer, drier conditions in the South and cooler, wetter conditions in the North.
And this is the part most people miss: these are probabilities, not guarantees. While the forecast suggests a higher likelihood of these conditions, it doesn't mean that every day will perfectly align with the prediction. There's still room for surprises and localized variations. For example, even though the South is predicted to be drier, individual storm systems could still bring periods of heavy rain.
Forecasters anticipate that La Niña will stick around through February 2026 before transitioning back to the neutral phase as spring arrives. So, we can expect these general weather patterns to persist for the majority of the winter season.
Now, let's talk specifics. While NOAA's winter outlook doesn't provide snowfall predictions directly, it does forecast above-normal overall precipitation between December and February for the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, the northern Rockies, the Great Plains, and the western Great Lakes. This increased precipitation, combined with cooler temperatures, could translate to more snow in those regions.
Consistent with La Niña's typical effects, the forecast also predicts drier-than-normal conditions across the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Southeast. So, those areas should prepare for potentially reduced rainfall this winter.
Outside the contiguous U.S., northwestern Alaska is predicted to have a warmer-than-usual winter, while the state's panhandle is expected to be cooler than normal. Western Alaska should see above-average precipitation, while the panhandle is forecast to have below-average precipitation. A separate forecast is issued for Hawaii, so stay tuned for that one if you're planning a trip to the islands.
Here's a potentially controversial point: Some argue that these long-range forecasts are too general to be truly helpful, while others find them valuable for planning purposes. What do you think? Do you find these seasonal outlooks useful in preparing for the winter, or do you prefer to rely on shorter-term weather forecasts? And, considering the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, how confident are you in these long-range predictions? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below!
