The job market is sending out alarm signals, and it’s not just a blip on the radar. October saw job openings plunge to their lowest point since February 2021, according to data from Indeed, a leading job search platform. This isn’t just a minor dip—it’s a trend that’s been building, and it’s raising eyebrows among economists and policymakers alike. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is this a temporary slowdown, or are we witnessing the beginning of a more significant shift in the labor market? Let’s dive in.
As the government shutdown dragged on, employment opportunities hit a four-and-a-half-year low by the end of October. Indeed’s Job Postings Index, which uses February 2020 as a baseline of 100, fell to 101.9 as of October 24—the most recent data available. This marks a 0.5% drop from the start of the month and a staggering 3.5% decline since mid-August. To put this in perspective, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would typically release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report by now, but the shutdown has left us in the dark. Instead, we’re relying on alternative data sources like Indeed to paint a picture of the labor market’s health.
And this is the part most people miss: The decline in job openings isn’t happening in isolation. Indeed’s dashboard also shows a pullback in salary offerings. Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by salary offerings in job postings, rose just 2.5% in August—down from 3.4% in January. This softening labor market has Fed officials on edge. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, citing rising risks to the labor market as a key concern.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook summed it up bluntly on Monday: ‘Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. We’re looking at real-time data, and there’s reason to be concerned.’ The unemployment rate ticked up slightly over the summer, and economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the BLS to report a decline of 60,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. But with the shutdown delaying official reports, we’re left piecing together the puzzle.
Here’s the kicker: While inflation remains a concern—hovering nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target—officials are increasingly prioritizing the labor market’s health. This shift in focus is bold, especially when inflation is still a hot-button issue. Is the Fed making the right call, or are they underestimating the long-term risks of inflation? Let’s open the floor for discussion. What do you think? Are we overreacting to a temporary slowdown, or is this the start of something bigger? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is one conversation you won’t want to miss.
